Julie's Web Journal

Anyway, it's generally been my tradition since to stay up late and until a winner is called. Obviously, I tried to get some sleep in 2020 since it took several days to determine the winner. So, what am I doing for prep this year, and what should you be watching for?

Why yes, I shall try to keep this non-partisan, but those who know me or who have followed me closely on socials know how I voted. It was simple. I walked into the polling location, showed my ID...

Hey, I told you I was going to try to keep this non-partisan.

One thing I found handy last year was spreadsheet. This year's is starting fairly basic, and I'll add more info as I go. I won't bore you with all the details, but it's a way for me to track what votes have been allocated/called in which states and what's still outstanding. That was incredibly useful in 2020 since it took days for the votes to get counted.

I may have some snacks, depending on how late I stay up, and as always there will be plenty of water to drink. I'll probably start at the TV then move to the computer where I can track multiple sources at once. And yes, I do keep an eye on Fox News. How many people remember they were among the first to call the election for Biden? 

What should you be watching for?

I shall be very surprised if the race gets called before midnight CST. As with four years ago, some counts will take some time to complete. Why is that? Well, every state has their own rules and their own deadlines. Overseas/military ballots are often given extra time. Those military votes were important in Florida in 2020 because the race was so close. Some of you may remember in 2020 that there was a burst pipe in the Atlanta location where they were counting votes. The ballots were okay, but that obviously caused a delay. Some states will be doing recounts, either triggered by a very close race or if a candidate files suit for a recount. The rules vary by state, but a recount isn't going to happen on election night.

How do news organizations decide to call an election for a particular candidate?

Good question. First, remember that this is pretty much speculation in the end. However, a basic formula is to take the number of votes cast and then see if the number of votes that need to be counted is greater or less than the difference between the two candidates. Yeah, the math gets a little more interesting if there are multiple candidates, but it's the same principle. 

Here's an example: 

Let's say a state says a total of one million votes has been cast. (Yes, it's going to be more than that, but let's keep the math as simple as possible. Besides, I get to channel my inner Doctor Evil with that total.) Candidate A has 100,000 votes and Candidate B has 200,000 votes. That tells you 700,000 votes are outstanding. The only thing I would confidently predict at that point is that there are more votes to be counted. (Duh.) 

Later in the evening, Candidate A has pulled ahead of Candidate B, and the difference is 50,000 votes. There are still 100,000 votes left to count. What's your prediction? Well, this is where the pundits put rely on their experience and what the votes have told them so far. Maybe early votes were heavily in favor of Candidate B, but in-person votes have swung heavily in A's favor. But wait, as the ads say, there's more! Where are those leftover votes? Urban areas tend to lag behind in reporting, not out of any conspiracy theory, but because there are more votes to count. And those who analyze these things might drill down to the precinct level. Say that Big City tends to vote majority one party, but the outstanding precincts tend to solidly vote the other party.  Me? I would confidently say that there were 100,000 votes left to count. The pundits may start to say the state is leaning in the direction of one candidate or the other, but few would make a call. Probably. 

The next count still shows a 50,000 vote gap, but there are only 5,000 votes left to be counted. Now the pundits can confidently make a prediction in favor of the candidate that's ahead. 

Again, if the vote is really, really close, there will likely be a recount. Again, some state laws call for one with the difference is within a certain percentage, and/or a candidate may ask for one if the difference is (within a sometimes different) percentage. Again, this is going to vary by state. As in 2020, I shall not be surprised to see requests/suits for recounts in battleground states or anywhere there's a close upset. What would be a close upset? I'm in Texas, and if Allred wins against Cruz in the Senate race, that will very likely be a close upset. 

What are my predictions?

On the presidential level it's going to be close or it will be a near blowout. Not a 1980-type blowout, but enough to be decisive. "Now Julie," I can hear you say, "that's some major league waffling right there." And I say, "mmmm. Waffles!" In all seriousness, I know who I would like to win, but it's too close for the old journalist in me to call. I would love to be pleasantly surprised.

Okay, I'll answer your other burning question: Is there a drinking game? You know, I'm sure there will be one. I expect that if I ware to take a sip every time someone predicts a close race, I'll be glad I'm drinking water. I'll leave it up to you to search for and find the drinking game that best suits you. (Oh, I do drink, but I know my limits and fear I would smash through them and be, well, too smashed to follow along.)

In conclusion: If you haven't voted and are eligible, please do so tomorrow. This is one time your vote can count more than ever.